Finding value in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs is a difficult task, to say the least, with superstars Gamine and Swiss Skydiver present. Both fillies offer an abundance of talent and low odds that fit their form.
You can place a bet on the Kentucky oaks online – or in person at the track or an OTB office. Online Betting: Online betting sites offer one of the most popular ways of betting on the Kentucky Derby. With just nine fillies in the entries, the 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday at Churchill Downs has drawn its smallest field since superstar Rachel Alexandra beat half a dozen rivals in 2009.
In other words, there is not a ton of upside in taking a shot against those 3-year-old fillies on Friday because the public is not overrating them. Either Gamine secures the lead and gets the job done, or Swiss Skydiver presses and wins.
[RELATED: Get FREE Kentucky Oaks, Derby PPs here]
Regardless, here is a full analysis of each entry in the nine-furlong contest.
The Kentucky Oaks is carded as Race 12 with a post time of 5:45 ST.
1. Swiss Skydiver, 8/5 (Daredevil – Kenneth McPeek/Tyler Gaffalione – 9: 5-2-1 – $952,980)
Since setting the pace and capturing the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) in March, this filly has been on fire, with three more wins and one runner-up finish. In that one loss in that timespan, she ran a good second to Art Collector, one of the leading contenders in the Kentucky Derby. The three other wins came in the Fantasy Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and most recently the Alabama Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles, where she won by 3 1/2 lengths and ended all stamina doubts. BRIS gave Swiss Skydiver a 109 Speed Rating for the Alabama victory, which matches the two 109 BRIS Speed Ratings in Gamine's last two starts. She is a win contender, but she needs to play aggressively and not let Gamine secure a comfortable lead. Otherwise, Gamine is going to slip away and hold on. But for those who do not believe Gamine is capable of nine furlongs, this is the right filly. Win contender.
2. Tempers Rising, 50-1 (Bayern – Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux – 10: 1-5-2 – $222,627)
In her last two starts, Tempers Rising lost an optional claimer at Ellis Park by one length and ran a dismal seventh by 10 lengths in a Churchill Downs allowance race. She does show a second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) to Bonny South. But her last two races are too disappointing to ignore. Toss.
3. Donna Veloce, 15-1 (Uncle Mo – Simon Callaghan/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 2-2-0 – $490,000)
Donna Veloce has not raced since March at Santa Anita. Back then, she beat Speech en route to winning the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) by 4 1/4 lengths. Considering that win, she is talented. But at least Speech owns more recent races to study, while it is unclear where Donna Veloce stands in terms of form. Last year, Donna Veloce also ran a close second in the Starlet Stakes (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Regardless, it feels like too big of a guess to trust Donna Veloce on top right now. Limit her to the underneath spots. Use underneath.
4. Speech, 5-1 (Mr Speaker – Michael McCarthy/Javier Castellano – 7: 3-3-1 – $378,240)
With Speech's three-length Ashland Stakes (G1) win in mid-July, it might seem tempting to choose her as possible upset option on top. However, keep in mind who Speech beat in that race. The runner-up Venetian Harbor shows some distance limitations in her form and pedigree, while the rest of the field did not look threatening. Prior to that race, Speech lost by four lengths to Swiss Skydiver in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and by a neck to Gamine in an Oaklawn optional claimer on May 2 (although Gamine tested positive and became disqualified). After that race, Gamine became a different filly and won the Acorn Stakes (G1) by 18 lengths. Speech figures to stalk Gamine and Swiss Skydiver and hope they wear each other out. But it is more logical to expect she picks up second or third rather than taking the top slot. Use underneath.
5. Gamine, 1/1 (Into Mischief – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 4: 3-0-0 – $363,000)
In Gamine's last two starts, she won the Test Stakes (G1) by seven lengths and the Acorn by an incredible 18 lengths. Without a doubt, she is in sharp form. The disqualification for the May 2 optional claiming win is something to note. Oddly, the optional claiming effort is her least impressive performance on paper, as she barely held on by a neck over a closing Speech. Expect Gamine to secure the lead again and take them as far as possible. Is the nine-furlong distance a problem? Into Mischief is not known as a stamina influence, although it is not impossible for him to sire a longer router. The bottom side of his pedigree offers no strong clues, though Baffert gets the best out of horses who appear questionable on the pedigree side. Like her or not, Gamine has a chance to become an all-time great in the same vein as the great Rachel Alexandra. Given Gamine's raw talent, it is too hard to play against her. Expect another memorable win. The pick.
6. Bayerness, 50-1 (Bayern – Cherie DeVaux/Rafael Bejarano – 5: 2-0-2 – $131,200)
In Bayerness' last two starts, she lost by 6 3/4 lengths to Shedaresthedevil in the Indiana Oaks (G3) and 8 1/4 lengths to Four Graces in the Dogwood Stakes (G3). Last fall, she defeated Swiss Skydiver in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs. But the version of Swiss Skydiver she beat then does not resemble the high-quality filly running today. Bayerness is overmatched against these. Toss.
7. Shedaresthedevil, 20-1 (Shedaresthedevil – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 9: 4-2-2 – $501,768)
Considering the 13-length loss to Swiss Skydiver in the Fantasy Stakes (G2), it is hard to trust this filly in any part of the ticket. After the Fantasy, she won a Churchill Downs optional claimer by six lengths and the Indiana Oaks (G3) by five lengths. But the fillies she beat in those two races are not in the same world as Gamine, Swiss Skydiver or Speech. On paper, Shedaresthedevil is plain overmatched. Toss.
Kentucky Oaks Distance
8. Hopeful Growth, 30-1 (Tapiture – Anthony Margotta Jr./Manuel Franco – 5: 3-1-0 – $183,240)
It is nice to see Hopeful Growth recover from the disappointing Delaware Oaks (G3) effort to win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) by four lengths. But defeating Project Whiskey is not the same as facing Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. There is talent and upside in this developing filly, though. For those who want a big longshot underneath, she might pick off tired horses and finish third or fourth. Use underneath.
9. Dream Marie, 50-1 (Graydar – Matthew Williams/Joe Talamo – 11: 3-2-1 – $160,160)
The connections are taking a wild shot. In Dream Marie's last two starts, she lost the Monmouth Oaks by seven lengths to Hopeful Growth and the Delaware Oaks (G3) by half a length to Project Whiskey. This is another filly that is overmatched and liable to finish 20 lengths behind or more in the end. Toss.
How To Bet On The Kentucky Oaks
Conclusion
Gamine is a worthy single based on talent and form. She owns three wins in four starts and shows two 109 BRIS Speed Ratings, which ties for the highest in the field. Like many Baffert stars, she figures to secure the lead and go all the way.
For bettors not spreading very deeply in other legs, using Swiss Skydiver alongside Gamine is not the worst idea. She is usable as either another A or B.
A vertical wager is not recommended. If one is played, Donna Veloce, Speech and Hopeful Grown are fillies that can finish underneath. Given the low value of Gamine, Swiss Skydiver and even Speech, it is better to include at least one or two big longshots underneath in the trifecta or superfecta to even out the low value on top.
2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1)
In other words, there is not a ton of upside in taking a shot against those 3-year-old fillies on Friday because the public is not overrating them. Either Gamine secures the lead and gets the job done, or Swiss Skydiver presses and wins.
[RELATED: Get FREE Kentucky Oaks, Derby PPs here]
Regardless, here is a full analysis of each entry in the nine-furlong contest.
The Kentucky Oaks is carded as Race 12 with a post time of 5:45 ST.
1. Swiss Skydiver, 8/5 (Daredevil – Kenneth McPeek/Tyler Gaffalione – 9: 5-2-1 – $952,980)
Since setting the pace and capturing the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) in March, this filly has been on fire, with three more wins and one runner-up finish. In that one loss in that timespan, she ran a good second to Art Collector, one of the leading contenders in the Kentucky Derby. The three other wins came in the Fantasy Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and most recently the Alabama Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles, where she won by 3 1/2 lengths and ended all stamina doubts. BRIS gave Swiss Skydiver a 109 Speed Rating for the Alabama victory, which matches the two 109 BRIS Speed Ratings in Gamine's last two starts. She is a win contender, but she needs to play aggressively and not let Gamine secure a comfortable lead. Otherwise, Gamine is going to slip away and hold on. But for those who do not believe Gamine is capable of nine furlongs, this is the right filly. Win contender.
2. Tempers Rising, 50-1 (Bayern – Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux – 10: 1-5-2 – $222,627)
In her last two starts, Tempers Rising lost an optional claimer at Ellis Park by one length and ran a dismal seventh by 10 lengths in a Churchill Downs allowance race. She does show a second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) to Bonny South. But her last two races are too disappointing to ignore. Toss.
3. Donna Veloce, 15-1 (Uncle Mo – Simon Callaghan/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 2-2-0 – $490,000)
Donna Veloce has not raced since March at Santa Anita. Back then, she beat Speech en route to winning the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) by 4 1/4 lengths. Considering that win, she is talented. But at least Speech owns more recent races to study, while it is unclear where Donna Veloce stands in terms of form. Last year, Donna Veloce also ran a close second in the Starlet Stakes (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Regardless, it feels like too big of a guess to trust Donna Veloce on top right now. Limit her to the underneath spots. Use underneath.
4. Speech, 5-1 (Mr Speaker – Michael McCarthy/Javier Castellano – 7: 3-3-1 – $378,240)
With Speech's three-length Ashland Stakes (G1) win in mid-July, it might seem tempting to choose her as possible upset option on top. However, keep in mind who Speech beat in that race. The runner-up Venetian Harbor shows some distance limitations in her form and pedigree, while the rest of the field did not look threatening. Prior to that race, Speech lost by four lengths to Swiss Skydiver in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and by a neck to Gamine in an Oaklawn optional claimer on May 2 (although Gamine tested positive and became disqualified). After that race, Gamine became a different filly and won the Acorn Stakes (G1) by 18 lengths. Speech figures to stalk Gamine and Swiss Skydiver and hope they wear each other out. But it is more logical to expect she picks up second or third rather than taking the top slot. Use underneath.
5. Gamine, 1/1 (Into Mischief – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 4: 3-0-0 – $363,000)
In Gamine's last two starts, she won the Test Stakes (G1) by seven lengths and the Acorn by an incredible 18 lengths. Without a doubt, she is in sharp form. The disqualification for the May 2 optional claiming win is something to note. Oddly, the optional claiming effort is her least impressive performance on paper, as she barely held on by a neck over a closing Speech. Expect Gamine to secure the lead again and take them as far as possible. Is the nine-furlong distance a problem? Into Mischief is not known as a stamina influence, although it is not impossible for him to sire a longer router. The bottom side of his pedigree offers no strong clues, though Baffert gets the best out of horses who appear questionable on the pedigree side. Like her or not, Gamine has a chance to become an all-time great in the same vein as the great Rachel Alexandra. Given Gamine's raw talent, it is too hard to play against her. Expect another memorable win. The pick.
6. Bayerness, 50-1 (Bayern – Cherie DeVaux/Rafael Bejarano – 5: 2-0-2 – $131,200)
In Bayerness' last two starts, she lost by 6 3/4 lengths to Shedaresthedevil in the Indiana Oaks (G3) and 8 1/4 lengths to Four Graces in the Dogwood Stakes (G3). Last fall, she defeated Swiss Skydiver in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs. But the version of Swiss Skydiver she beat then does not resemble the high-quality filly running today. Bayerness is overmatched against these. Toss.
7. Shedaresthedevil, 20-1 (Shedaresthedevil – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 9: 4-2-2 – $501,768)
Considering the 13-length loss to Swiss Skydiver in the Fantasy Stakes (G2), it is hard to trust this filly in any part of the ticket. After the Fantasy, she won a Churchill Downs optional claimer by six lengths and the Indiana Oaks (G3) by five lengths. But the fillies she beat in those two races are not in the same world as Gamine, Swiss Skydiver or Speech. On paper, Shedaresthedevil is plain overmatched. Toss.
Kentucky Oaks Distance
8. Hopeful Growth, 30-1 (Tapiture – Anthony Margotta Jr./Manuel Franco – 5: 3-1-0 – $183,240)
It is nice to see Hopeful Growth recover from the disappointing Delaware Oaks (G3) effort to win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) by four lengths. But defeating Project Whiskey is not the same as facing Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. There is talent and upside in this developing filly, though. For those who want a big longshot underneath, she might pick off tired horses and finish third or fourth. Use underneath.
9. Dream Marie, 50-1 (Graydar – Matthew Williams/Joe Talamo – 11: 3-2-1 – $160,160)
The connections are taking a wild shot. In Dream Marie's last two starts, she lost the Monmouth Oaks by seven lengths to Hopeful Growth and the Delaware Oaks (G3) by half a length to Project Whiskey. This is another filly that is overmatched and liable to finish 20 lengths behind or more in the end. Toss.
How To Bet On The Kentucky Oaks
Conclusion
Gamine is a worthy single based on talent and form. She owns three wins in four starts and shows two 109 BRIS Speed Ratings, which ties for the highest in the field. Like many Baffert stars, she figures to secure the lead and go all the way.
For bettors not spreading very deeply in other legs, using Swiss Skydiver alongside Gamine is not the worst idea. She is usable as either another A or B.
A vertical wager is not recommended. If one is played, Donna Veloce, Speech and Hopeful Grown are fillies that can finish underneath. Given the low value of Gamine, Swiss Skydiver and even Speech, it is better to include at least one or two big longshots underneath in the trifecta or superfecta to even out the low value on top.
2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1)
| Rank | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Skydiver Daredevil |
| K. McPeek | Entered | |||
| Tempers Rising Bayern |
| D. Stewart |
| Entered | ||
| Donna Veloce Uncle Mo |
| S. Callaghan |
| Entered | ||
| Speech Mr Speaker |
| M. McCarthy | Entered | |||
| Gamine Into Mischief |
| B. Baffert |
| Entered | ||
| Bayerness Bayern |
| C. DeVaux |
| Entered | ||
| Shedaresthedevil Daredevil |
| B. Cox |
| Entered | ||
| Hopeful Growth Tapiture |
| A. Margotta | Entered | |||
| Dream Marie Graydar |
| M. Williams |
| Entered |
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